CFB Playoff Meter

Projected CFP Bids by Conference

SEC4.2Big Ten3.1Big 121.5ACC1.4Independent0.9American0.4Pac-120.2Sun Belt0.1Mountain West0.1MAC0.0Conference USA0.0

Team	Conf Title Gm	Conf Champ	CFP	Top 4 Seed	At Large	Quarterfinal	Semifinal	Title Game	Nat Title
NDNotre Dame Independent	—	—	88.3%	18.8%	88.3%	65.4%	37.7%	20.6%	11.1%
OSUOhio State Big Ten	50.0%	30.8%	79.8%	42.7%	49.1%	68.7%	42.6%	25.5%	15.0%
OREOregon Big Ten	48.1%	26.9%	79.7%	38.5%	52.8%	66.3%	39.0%	22.1%	12.1%
MIAMiami ACC	82.7%	62.4%	74.3%	36.2%	12.0%	62.3%	35.4%	18.6%	9.4%
UGAGeorgia SEC	40.0%	22.8%	71.8%	32.8%	49.0%	58.1%	32.4%	17.5%	9.0%
IUIndiana Big Ten	48.7%	27.2%	71.5%	32.8%	44.3%	58.0%	33.4%	18.5%	10.0%
TEXTexas SEC	32.0%	17.4%	67.8%	29.2%	50.4%	53.8%	29.8%	15.7%	7.9%
MISSOle Miss SEC	31.9%	17.2%	64.3%	26.9%	47.1%	50.5%	27.3%	14.1%	7.0%
ALAAlabama SEC	30.3%	15.4%	58.5%	21.9%	43.1%	43.6%	22.5%	11.1%	5.3%
TA&MTexas A&M SEC	24.6%	12.3%	54.4%	19.0%	42.1%	39.9%	20.2%	9.7%	4.4%
TTUTexas Tech Big 12	46.5%	30.0%	43.9%	21.6%	14.0%	33.9%	14.4%	5.5%	2.1%
LSULSU SEC	12.7%	5.3%	31.7%	8.8%	26.4%	20.5%	8.8%	3.5%	1.4%
BYUBYU Big 12	32.3%	17.8%	26.7%	9.0%	8.9%	17.5%	6.4%	2.2%	0.7%
OUOklahoma SEC	8.9%	3.5%	24.4%	6.0%	20.9%	14.8%	5.9%	2.2%	0.8%
USCUSC Big Ten	11.7%	4.1%	24.3%	6.0%	20.2%	14.7%	5.8%	2.1%	0.8%
UTAHUtah Big 12	27.8%	14.7%	21.6%	7.2%	6.9%	13.9%	4.8%	1.5%	0.4%
MIZMissouri SEC	6.9%	2.5%	18.1%	3.8%	15.7%	10.2%	3.9%	1.4%	0.4%
TENNTennessee SEC	6.8%	2.3%	16.4%	3.5%	14.0%	9.0%	3.3%	1.1%	0.4%
MICHMichigan Big Ten	6.2%	1.9%	13.4%	2.8%	11.4%	7.1%	2.4%	0.8%	0.2%
TULNTulane American	45.5%	25.9%	11.9%	0.0%	0.0%	1.5%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%
IOWAIowa Big Ten	8.9%	2.6%	11.8%	2.8%	9.2%	6.3%	2.0%	0.6%	0.2%
BOISBoise State Pac-12	56.3%	33.9%	11.7%	0.0%	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%
WASHWashington Big Ten	6.6%	2.1%	11.6%	2.6%	9.6%	6.1%	2.0%	0.6%	0.2%
UVAVirginia ACC	24.3%	8.0%	11.6%	2.1%	3.6%	5.8%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%
USFSouth Florida American	41.7%	22.4%	10.9%	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
JMUJames Madison Sun Belt	45.8%	32.6%	10.7%	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
ARIZArizona Big 12	13.6%	6.3%	9.8%	2.8%	3.5%	5.6%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%
LOULouisville ACC	18.9%	6.1%	9.7%	1.5%	3.6%	4.7%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%
NAVYNavy American	43.2%	22.8%	9.3%	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
CLEMClemson ACC	12.5%	4.7%	8.5%	1.7%	3.8%	4.4%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%
SMUSMU ACC	17.1%	5.5%	8.1%	1.3%	2.6%	3.9%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%
CINCincinnati Big 12	11.8%	5.1%	7.8%	2.0%	2.7%	4.1%	1.1%	0.2%	0.1%
GTGeorgia Tech ACC	12.7%	4.1%	7.6%	1.3%	3.4%	3.6%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%
UNLVUNLV Mountain West	60.8%	37.8%	6.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
PSUPenn State Big Ten	7.3%	1.7%	6.8%	1.6%	5.1%	3.3%	0.9%	0.2%	0.1%
TCUTCU Big 12	10.1%	4.1%	6.2%	1.4%	2.0%	3.1%	0.8%	0.2%	<0.1%
ASUArizona State Big 12	10.2%	4.2%	6.0%	1.2%	1.8%	2.9%	0.8%	0.2%	<0.1%
OKSTOklahoma State Big 12	11.3%	4.6%	6.0%	0.9%	1.4%	2.5%	0.6%	0.1%	<0.1%
BAYBaylor Big 12	10.1%	4.2%	5.8%	1.2%	1.6%	2.8%	0.7%	0.1%	<0.1%
ILLIllinois Big Ten	5.1%	1.3%	5.7%	1.3%	4.4%	2.8%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%
HOUHouston Big 12	8.5%	3.3%	4.8%	0.9%	1.4%	2.3%	0.6%	0.1%	<0.1%
SDSUSan Diego State Pac-12	38.0%	19.1%	4.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
NDSUNorth Dakota State Mountain West	52.2%	28.7%	4.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
PITTPittsburgh ACC	8.0%	2.7%	4.5%	0.8%	1.8%	2.2%	0.6%	0.2%	<0.1%
NCSUNC State ACC	10.2%	2.9%	4.2%	0.5%	1.2%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%	<0.1%
MEMMemphis American	20.5%	9.8%	4.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
AUBAuburn SEC	1.7%	0.5%	3.9%	0.6%	3.5%	1.7%	0.5%	0.1%	<0.1%
ORSTOregon State Pac-12	35.2%	17.2%	3.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
SCSouth Carolina SEC	1.8%	0.5%	3.5%	0.6%	3.1%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%	<0.1%
WSUWashington State Pac-12	35.1%	17.2%	3.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
CALCalifornia ACC	5.1%	1.4%	3.0%	0.5%	1.6%	1.3%	0.3%	0.1%	<0.1%
UNTNorth Texas American	19.8%	8.9%	2.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
MINNMinnesota Big Ten	2.4%	0.5%	2.6%	0.5%	2.1%	1.1%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%
KSUKansas State Big 12	5.4%	1.8%	2.4%	0.3%	0.6%	0.9%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%
UCLAUCLA Big Ten	1.9%	0.4%	2.2%	0.4%	1.8%	0.9%	0.2%	0.1%	<0.1%
VTVirginia Tech ACC	2.9%	0.9%	1.8%	0.3%	0.9%	0.8%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%
TOLToledo MAC	39.9%	24.1%	1.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
WVUWest Virginia Big 12	3.7%	1.3%	1.8%	0.3%	0.5%	0.7%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
KUKansas Big 12	3.6%	1.1%	1.5%	0.2%	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
FLAFlorida SEC	0.7%	0.2%	1.4%	0.2%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
ARMYArmy American	9.4%	3.8%	1.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
ODUOld Dominion Sun Belt	16.8%	10.0%	1.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
ARKArkansas SEC	0.5%	0.1%	1.0%	0.1%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
MSUMichigan State Big Ten	1.2%	0.2%	0.9%	0.2%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
VANVanderbilt SEC	0.6%	0.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
APPAppalachian State Sun Belt	14.2%	8.1%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
WKUWestern Kentucky Conference USA	46.9%	27.2%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
UNMNew Mexico Mountain West	25.8%	11.5%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
UCFUCF Big 12	2.0%	0.6%	0.7%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
SYRSyracuse ACC	1.9%	0.4%	0.7%	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
AFAAir Force Mountain West	23.4%	10.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
COLOColorado Big 12	1.8%	0.5%	0.7%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
TXSTTexas State Pac-12	15.6%	6.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
USASouth Alabama Sun Belt	26.5%	11.4%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
OHIOOhio MAC	27.9%	14.4%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
ECUEast Carolina American	7.4%	2.5%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
MRSHMarshall Sun Belt	11.3%	6.3%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
M-OHMiami (OH) MAC	27.5%	14.4%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
WMUWestern Michigan MAC	25.4%	13.4%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
LIBLiberty Conference USA	38.3%	19.9%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
FRESFresno State Pac-12	14.8%	5.5%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
UKKentucky SEC	0.3%	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%	0.4%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
DUKEDuke ACC	1.2%	0.3%	0.5%	<0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
ISUIowa State Big 12	1.4%	0.4%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
UTSAUTSA American	5.0%	1.9%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
WAKEWake Forest ACC	1.1%	0.2%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
MSSTMississippi State SEC	0.2%	<0.1%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
JVSTJacksonville State Conference USA	30.3%	15.4%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
WISWisconsin Big Ten	0.7%	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
NEBNebraska Big Ten	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
ULLouisiana Sun Belt	20.5%	7.8%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
BCBoston College ACC	0.8%	0.2%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
UDDelaware Conference USA	27.6%	13.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
BUFFBuffalo MAC	16.6%	7.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
MDMaryland Big Ten	0.4%	0.1%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
SHSUSam Houston Conference USA	20.6%	9.7%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
USMSouthern Miss Sun Belt	12.9%	4.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
BGSUBowling Green MAC	16.0%	7.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
RUTGRutgers Big Ten	0.3%	<0.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
LTLouisiana Tech Sun Belt	15.0%	5.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
FAUFlorida Atlantic American	2.2%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CMUCentral Michigan MAC	13.7%	6.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
GASOGeorgia Southern Sun Belt	5.2%	2.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CCUCoastal Carolina Sun Belt	5.2%	2.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
SJSUSan José State Mountain West	13.0%	4.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
TROYTroy Sun Belt	11.1%	3.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
FSUFlorida State ACC	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
PURPurdue Big Ten	0.2%	<0.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
ARSTArkansas State Sun Belt	12.8%	4.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
SACSacramento State MAC	12.3%	5.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
UNCNorth Carolina ACC	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
RICERice American	1.7%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NEVNevada Mountain West	7.4%	2.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
STANStanford ACC	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
TLSATulsa American	1.3%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
WYOWyoming Mountain West	5.9%	1.8%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
KENNKennesaw State Conference USA	11.6%	4.8%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CLTCharlotte American	1.1%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NUNorthwestern Big Ten	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
FIUFlorida International Conference USA	9.9%	3.9%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
EMUEastern Michigan MAC	9.0%	3.7%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
TEMTemple American	1.0%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NIUNorthern Illinois Mountain West	4.1%	1.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
GASTGeorgia State Sun Belt	1.4%	0.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
HAWHawai'i Mountain West	4.4%	1.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
MOSTMissouri State Conference USA	7.0%	2.7%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CSUColorado State Pac-12	2.4%	0.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
BALLBall State MAC	3.1%	1.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
KENTKent State MAC	2.7%	0.8%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AKRAkron MAC	3.8%	1.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NMSUNew Mexico State Conference USA	3.4%	1.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
MTSUMiddle Tennessee Conference USA	4.3%	1.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
USUUtah State Pac-12	2.7%	0.7%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
UTEPUTEP Mountain West	2.9%	0.7%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
MASSMassachusetts MAC	2.0%	0.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
UABUAB American	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CONNUConn Independent	—	—	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
ULMUL Monroe Sun Belt	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Each team's remaining games are simulated 100,000 times and run through the same standings, tiebreaker and College Football Playoff selection logic as the Playoff Predictor. Records and win distributions cover the regular season only and exclude conference championship games. Average seed is measured across the simulations in which a team reached the field.